White paper on transforming cancer care by 2040: A roadmap to equitable, innovative and sustainable solutions
Transparency Disclaimer: The development of this white paper has been led by AstraZeneca, with the support and consultation of an expert group in the field of oncology. The expert group provided input throughout the process, including guidance on the paper’s direction, content, and recommendations. The views expressed in this paper reflect a collective assessment of the current and future landscape of cancer care and are intended to inform and support ongoing efforts in the field. However, the final content and recommendations are those of AstraZeneca, and they do not necessarily reflect the official position of the expert group or any affiliated institutions. Please note that some of the technologies mentioned in the white paper may not be available in certain countries and its effectiveness may not have yet been proven or established in clinical trials.
Table of Contents
Chapter 1: The economic case for transforming cancer care
Although cancer care outcomes have improved in recent years, the disease continues to claim millions of lives each year. In 2022, an estimated 9.7 million people died from cancer, a figure projected to rise to 15.3 million annually by 2040.1 Consequentially, cancer exerts a significant burden on individuals, health systems and society.8 Tackling this challenge requires bold investment in healthcare infrastructure, innovative technologies, and equitable access to cutting-edge treatments. This investment needs to get ahead of future trends, not just grow in line with cancer prevalence.
The emergence of novel technologies creates a strong case for a paradigm shift in cancer care to prevention, early diagnosis2,16 and holistic care212 rather than the traditional focus on late-stage treatment. This will require a shift in strategic investment, which recognizes the balance of upfront costs with the long-term return from patients regaining health and independence and continuing to contribute to society and the economy.
Now is the time to make the right investments – with cancer budgets having a quota on both current and future investments in early diagnosis, precision therapies and holistic support – to create a future where cancer patients not only survive but thrive – living longer, healthier lives with access to the highest quality care. This section explores the multifaceted economic and social burden of cancer as well as the potential gains of making these investments.
Fact sheet
The societal burden of cancer
The growing economic burden of cancer
- Direct healthcare spending and out-of-pocket costs (OOPs): Cancer treatment constitutes a significant portion of healthcare expenditures, placing immense pressure on national health budgets and directly impacting patients.3 Across high income countries (HICs) cancer patients and caregivers spend on average 16% of their income on OOPs, whilst in LMICs this increases to 42%.4 This results in ‘financial toxicity’ – the financial impact of cancer on patients and their families, which often disproportionately affects those from socioeconomically deprived backgrounds and leads to both poorer financial and health outcomes.5,6
- Direct welfare costs: Cancer incurs substantial direct costs for welfare systems as patients are unable to work and often require unemployment benefits, disability support, and other forms of social assistance.7 This heightened financial insecurity can affect whole families.7
- Productivity losses: Cancer also has a profound impact on economic productivity due to patient’s extended absences from work and reduced capacity due to the physical and emotional toll of the disease. Across the OECD, an additional 160,000 cases of depression are recorded every year due to cancer and productivity losses affect the equivalent to 3.1 million workers.8 The economic impact from productivity loss is likely to continue to grow, as early onset cancer continues to increase – with deaths from early onset cancer rising by 27.7% between 1990 and 2019.9
- Societal impact of cancer: The societal impact of cancer is significant and can last through generations, especially when considering the trauma of losing a family member.10 An analysis performed in Australia demonstrates that with every $1 invested in treatment to improve the prognosis of a non-curative cancer diagnosis, $3.06 of social and economic value is gained.10
- Indirect widening of health disparities: Cancer also exacerbates social inequities, disproportionately affecting low-income, marginalized, and rural communities. In LMICs, it is estimated that between 49% and 54% of childhood cancers go undiagnosed,11 which is likely linked to barriers in access to early detection and effective diagnostics.11
Fact sheet
The economic burden of cancer
Fact sheet
The health system burden of cancer
The case for investment in cancer system transformation
There is a strong economic case to be made for shifting the cancer treatment paradigm to prevention and early diagnosis where the chances of cure are higher. This would focus cancer care in 2040 on prevention, early detection, personalized treatments, and long-term support for survivors. Innovations in these areas are discussed in more detail in Chapters 3-6. The value of this investment in health is recognized by many countries, even though the return may take years – even decades – to be quantifiable. With up to half of all cancers being considered preventable,12 detecting cancer early can provide an even quicker (if smaller) return by increasing the chances of successful treatment,13 reducing the costly burden of treatment side effects,14 and decreasing the cost of treatment by two to four times versus late-stage treatment.15
Emerging technologies, such as liquid biopsies and targeted therapies, offer transformative potential for cancer care and treatment efficiency.16,17 Liquid biopsies, for example, are rapidly gaining attention for their potential to revolutionize cancer care across multiple stages—from early detection and screening to ongoing monitoring of disease progression.18 This can enhance advancements in personalized medicine and targeted therapies, which have strong potential for reducing long-term costs by lowering recurrence rates19 and hospitalizations.20 Whole genome sequencing (WGS), once considered expensive,21 is now approaching the cost of routine genetic tests for leukemia.22 However, it is important to identify those cancers or genetic subsets which will be most amenable to genetic testing and subsequent precision treatment, for example 40% of colorectal cancer patients have a particular gene mutation which would be a potential target for precision treatment.23 Limiting drug prescriptions and reimbursements to patients with the highest treatment response potential would generate additional economic advantages.24
Beyond the direct medical benefits of new technologies, helping cancer survivors return to work and maintain productivity represents a significant yet difficult-to-measure economic gain. We must provide better support, such as rehabilitation programs, mental healthcare, and workplace adjustments, to enable survivors to reintegrate into the workforce and contribute to society. However, strong governance is essential to fully capitalize on these advancements, and implement the infrastructure needed. These should be adaptive governance models, which can anticipate future need and balance the sometimes-competing mandates of oversight and innovation.
Fact sheet
Return on investment in cancer care
Scenario planning
Policymakers and healthcare leaders who succeed in finding available capital to fund investments will then need to clearly and credibly articulate the financial returns they expect their investments to generate. To support this and help frame our collective call to action to transform cancer care, we have developed three illustrative and hypothetical scenarios, which are described below (Figure 1). These scenarios are entirely based on assumptions and are not based on any hard data. In a second phase of work, building on this white paper, a calculator will be developed that can be used by a country or region to model the return on investment for the most promising technologies in health system transformation.
Figure 1.
Hypothetical scenarios depicting the trends in healthcare expenditure and 5-year patient survival, between 2025 and 2040, based on the level of transformation in cancer care.
Healthcare expenditure
5 Year survival
Flatline future scenario
Representing no significant change in status quo or innovation adoption
The first scenario reflects a Flatline Future Scenario, representing minimal change in cancer care. This illustrative scenario shows 5-year survival rates increasing only marginally along current trend lines, healthcare expenditure rising exponentially without corresponding improvements in outcomes, and productivity in cancer care remaining stagnant. Healthcare systems struggle to meet increasing demand from an aging population and rising cancer rates, with insufficient growth in specialist workforce and system capacity. This approach provides a baseline against which more innovative scenarios can be compared, highlighting the potential consequences of failing to adopt new technologies and approaches in cancer care. It also serves as a cautionary projection, and emphasizes the need for continued investment and innovation in oncology to avoid such a flatline future.
Incomplete transformation scenario
Reflecting some transformation with partial adoption of innovations
An Incomplete Transformation Scenario reflects partial adoption of innovations, resulting in uneven progress across different populations and aspects of cancer care. This scenario would show some improvements but also persistent disparities. While 5-year survival rates and productivity metrics improve for those with access to advanced care, especially in urban and higher-income areas, these gains are not equitably distributed. Economic disparities persist leaving lower-income and rural patients behind. Demographic changes, such as an aging population and rising cancer incidence, further exacerbate these inequalities, underscoring the need for more equitable policies and resource distribution in cancer care.
Complete transformation scenario
Indicating rapid progress and widespread adoption of cutting-edge innovations
Complete Transformation Scenario indicates rapid progress and widespread adoption of cutting-edge innovations, underlined by the principles of precision prevention and holistic long-term care that go beyond cancer care alone, leading to significant improvements in outcomes. This transformation results in exponential increases in 5-year survival rates, particularly for hard-to-treat cancers, while reducing healthcare costs over time due to more efficient, targeted treatments and streamlined processes enabled by artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced technologies. Equitable access to personalized medicine ensured through subsidies and policies, reduces demographic disparities in survival rate. Healthcare systems undergo comprehensive improvements, with increased investment in infrastructure and workforce development, allowing specialists to manage larger patient populations effectively. Economic factors support this transformation through expanded insurance coverage, patient-centered financial policies, and optimized resource utilization, creating a sustainable and equitable cancer care ecosystem.
This white paper describes and makes recommendations on where policymakers could invest to help make the complete transformation scenario a potential reality in 2040.
Chapter 2: System governance
To improve outcomes in cancer care and ensure innovations deliver their full potential, a strong governance model is required – underpinned by comprehensive, evidence-based, transparently monitored and well-funded national cancer control plans (NCCPs).25,26
NCCPs are an increasingly frequent form of governance used by cancer planners,27 promoted by the World Health Organization (WHO)28 and the Union for International Cancer Control.29 They provide a roadmap for cancer prevention, detection, diagnosis, acute and long-term treatment, support for survivors, and palliative care.30 However, the quality, adherence and funding of NCCPs is highly variable between and within countries. In the EU, for example, only one third of NCCPs addressed all areas of cancer care, only 27% included financing strategies and 50% lacked reference to radiotherapy strategies, demonstrating disparities in treatment access.31 These gaps often result from unachievable goals, lack of robust costing and implementation frameworks, and budgets that fail to support guideline-concordant care.27
By 2040, we envision cancer governance as agile, collaborative, and innovative, underpinned by digital-first, data-driven, and adaptable frameworks. NCCPs should be comprehensive, dynamic and infrastructure focused. To achieve this, we must move beyond the limitations of today’s short-term policy cycles32 to a future-focused governance model, with plans supported by horizon scanning to enable planners to keep pace with advancements in care and to ensure no patient is left behind. These NCCPs must be supported by strong health systems supported by key pillars – service delivery, health workforce, health information systems, access to essential medicines, financing and leadership/governance. These pillars were drawn from the WHO’s Health Systems Framework33 and have been discussed in more detail below.
Fact sheet
Governance – The role of National Cancer Control Plans (NCCPs)
Fact sheet
Governance – Implementation of NCCPs
Data infrastructure and collection
Data collection: Effective data collection is essential to understand cancer and prognosis, understand health inequalities, evaluate current practices and develop better treatments.34 Yet the rich real-world data which exists in electronic health records (EHR) is difficult to access.35 LMICs in particular face challenges in establishing robust cancer registries, due to the fixed and labor costs associated with developing these.36 This paucity of data can result in inaccurate estimates of cancer incidence, with only 1 in 5 LMICs having sufficient quality data.37 These gaps can hinder efforts to analyze trends to inform approaches for cancer control.36
Case study
AU: Cancer screening registers
Data security and privacy: Technologies, such as those which use AI and analyze large amounts of patient data, need strong governance over data sharing, security, and ownership,38 due to the need to access sensitive health information.39 Data should be shared responsibly and securely – through encryption, anonymization, and clear policies on data ownership – to build public trust, help patients retain control over their health data, and contribute to advances in research.40
Case study
AU: Creating a healthcare data platform
Data interoperability: The future of cancer care depends on a robust, interoperable data infrastructure that connects disparate data sources – such as data from governments, hospitals, academic institutions, wearable technologies, and consumer apps.41 This interconnected system is essential to harness the power of data in advanced clinical decision-making, empowering patients to be more involved in their care, streamlining the evaluation of treatments based on real-world data, and supporting value-based healthcare by simplifying cost assessment.40,42
Case study
US: Facilitating data collection from electronic health records
Fact sheet
System governance – Data and infrastructure
Planning, transparency and accountability
Cancer plan framework: Every country should secure political commitment to establish its own long-term transformational project for cancer care, which aligns with major national health goals – whether that means charting a path towards curing cancer, building greater resilience and sustainability in healthcare, or reducing equity gaps in access and outcomes. Discussions with the expert group suggested that this could be supported by comprehensive horizon scanning, as occurs in Canada,43 and a fully funded 10-to-15-year NCCP, equipped with robust implementation metrics and ongoing evaluation. To drive tangible progress, it was proposed that the plan should be implemented through a series of medium-term (3-to-5-year) action plans – ‘ground shots’ – which lay out the practical steps needed to achieve the long-term vision.
Case study
BR: National cancer committee/institute
Case study
FR: Cancer Plan
Case study
CN: Commitment to tackling cancer
Accountability: Many existing NCCPs suffer from insufficient oversight and a lack of shared responsibility among key stakeholders.30
A blended model of accountability, where elected officials, health system administrators, service providers, academic institutions, industry representatives, and patient groups collaboratively develop and execute a comprehensive cancer strategy, could help address these gaps whilst ensuring a diverse range of perspectives and expertise. For this to be effective a named cancer leader needs to be responsible for the development and adoption of the plan.
Case study
EU: Cancer Mission Hubs (ECHoS)
Case study
EU: PCM4EU
Case study
Global: QUAD cancer moonshot initiative
Case study
NO & SE: Multi-stakeholder leadership
Transparent monitoring and reporting: To maintain accountability and transparency, regular reporting on performance metrics should be a fundamental aspect of any framework.44 Data should be collected to monitor key performance indicators for NCCPs, health systems, and specific care pathways. Actionable insights can be drawn, through the integration of AI, to inform the development and implementation of NCCPs, whilst regular performance reviews can foster greater public trust.45 Real-time monitoring and reporting also aids equitable decision making, allowing elected officials and system administrators to reallocate resources where they are most needed. Several European Union Member States, through initiatives like Europe’s Beating Cancer Plan, have established annual reporting mechanisms to transparently report on progress against measurable targets.46
Case study
EN & CH: Patient experience surveys
Case study
Global: Cancer performance indicator
Case study
HR: Cancer plan
Building capability and capacity in healthcare infrastructure & workforce
Digitally assisted sampling and analysis: As technologies – such as WGS, liquid biopsy and AI assisted pathology – become better at informing early cancer detection and treatment, health systems will need to establish highly integrated and productive sampling, data collection and storage, analysis, monitoring, and communication capabilities to:48,49
- Collaborate with other experts in real time49 and leverage global partnerships as seen between the UK and Australia in radiology diagnosis, providing an out of hours service50
- Generate diagnoses for rare and complex diseases51
- Increase the quality and efficiency of diagnostics as well as facilitate patient engagement52
- Increase compliance with clinical practice guidelines, through integration of guidelines into electronic health record systems53
An expanding role for primary care: Primary care providers are essential in identifying cancer symptoms, referring patients for specialist investigation and supporting lifestyle modification to reduce NCD risk.54 As the focus on early detection intensifies, primary care’s role must expand, to incorporate more sophisticated tools like genetic profiling and AI-powered decision support systems to more efficiently refer high-risk patients to screening and specialized care.55,56 To support this shift, training programs for primary care professionals must be reconfigured.57 The role of healthcare professionals out-of-hospital can also extend to community care. In England, several cancer alliances carried out a pilot which allowed pharmacists to directly refer for scans patients they thought may have cancer.58
Reconfiguration of workflows: As healthcare shifts towards more digital and technology-driven models59 workflows must adapt. In pathology labs, for instance, the advent of digital pathology and AI-powered image analysis will fundamentally change the way labs operate.60 New roles will emerge, such as technicians who manage and photograph digital slides for AI analysis,61 allowing for more efficient workflows and faster diagnoses, reducing the time patients wait for critical results. Supporting this transformation will require not just retraining, but also a reimagining of shift patterns and cross-jurisdictional collaboration.
Emerging role of data experts: As healthcare systems become more reliant on AI and machine learning to interpret vast amounts of patient data, roles such as data scientists, bioinformaticians, and AI specialists will become increasingly integral to day-to-day operations.62 These professionals can support clinicians by ensuring accurate data analysis and by helping to develop personalized treatment plans.
Upskilling patient navigators: Patient navigation will be key as care pathways become more complex with the introduction of advanced treatments, like immunotherapy and precision medicine. Patient navigators help individuals understand their diagnosis, treatment options, and follow-up care, guiding them through complex medical systems and ensuring they receive timely interventions.63 As patients face being seen by multiple specialists, receiving multiple treatments and diagnostic tests, navigators will need to be well-versed not only in medical care but also in digital tools that help streamline communication between providers, schedule appointments, and track treatment progress.
Fact sheet
System governance – Workforce capacity
Case study
NO: Cancer clusters to promote knowledge exchange
Chapter 3: Personalized primary prevention
Cancer prevention focused on population-wide approaches addressing modifiable risk factors – such as tobacco control policies, dietary regulations and vaccination programs – has long been a cornerstone of public health efforts, driven by its proven cost-effectiveness and potential to significantly reduce the burden on healthcare systems.64 Research has shown that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of prevention efforts for breast cancer was $25,000, $24,000 for colorectal cancer and $34,000 for prostate cancer.65
However, approaches focused solely on modifiable risk factors do not fully account for all cancer deaths in the population.66 For example, we now know that one in ten cancers may run in the family.67 By 2040, our vision for cancer prevention efforts includes the use of advanced data and technology to empower individuals to actively reduce their personal risk from all risk factors. Following discussions with the expert group, we see this vision as needing to integrate clinical data, genetic profiles, and real-time personal health metrics – such as lifestyle behaviors and prior medical history – to allow for AI-driven predictive models that generate personalized prevention plans. However, as cancer prevention strategies are increasingly invested in and adopted across health systems, it is critical to ensure that these advancements do not exacerbate existing health inequalities.68 Socioeconomic factors already play a major role in cancer survival, and without deliberate efforts to address disparities, personalized prevention could widen the gap.69 In this chapter, we explore the evolution of cancer prevention, the role of technology in shaping its future, and the policy considerations needed to ensure equitable access to personalized prevention strategies.
Wearable-and-data-enabled risk assessment and lifestyle intervention
Wearables, like fitness trackers, allow people to have more control of their health wherever they are70 and can be used to monitor location and lifestyle data, which could then be used by an AI tool to model a person’s cancer risk, identifying and alerting those most at risk.71 These capabilities, however are yet to be developed. Investing in affordable innovations like smartphone apps and wearables could also have the potential to make personalized prevention accessible to more people.71 While, today, wearables such as glucose monitoring devices may be difficult to access in LMICs,72 the high use of smartphones and the trend of technological innovations becoming cheaper73 shows promise for widespread future use.71 As these technologies become more affordable, LMICs may be able to “leapfrog” some of today’s more inefficient interventions, which have been trialed in high income countries (HICs), in their prevention efforts. Furthermore, the challenge caused by digital exclusion and digital illiteracy, which tends to be more prominent in older people,74 is likely to be lessened as younger, more digitally literate generations become a larger part of the population.
Better identification and understanding of inherited cancer risk
Genetic testing is an important new frontier for cancer prevention, as patients with known familial cancer risk often struggle to access effective interventions within a healthcare system primarily designed to treat, not prevent, cancer.75 As the cost of genetic testing decreases and more genetic data becomes available, we will be able to identify even more genes that cause cancer (“oncogenes”) and the specific types of cancer they are linked to.76 However, for genetic testing to truly benefit patients, it is essential to have robust genetic counselling services in place77 to ensure patients have the support to understand their results, interpret the implications for their health, and make informed decisions about preventive measures.77 By 2040, as knowledge of oncogenes expands, people with identified genetic risks may seek risk-stratified screening programs and effective, personalized cancer prevention interventions, supported by accessible genetic counselling.
Case study
Global: Accounting for genetic risk in breast cancer risk prediction models
Case study
Global: Using machine learning to predict disease
Population based whole genome sequencing (WGS)
WGS allows us to analyze multiple genes and create a person’s polygenic (or multi-gene) risk score, which captures part of an individual’s genetic susceptibility to cancer.78 These risk scores could help streamline current screening programs to those with high polygenetic risk.79 Before WGS can be offered to entire populations, we need to demonstrate why this technology can provide better data than family medical histories or previous genetic tests. Strict guidance will also be necessary on when WGS should be performed – for example, while some newborns are screened for rare diseases,80 it might be more useful to test for cancer risk in young adults. Implementation of WGS should also consider the social, cultural and legal context of a country as genetic discrimination and stigmatization are feared by individuals with a genetic predisposition to cancer.81 While there are laws around genetic discrimination in some countries, such as the US, these are not necessarily widespread.81,82 To ensure WGS benefits everyone, it must be implemented in a way that aligns with available resources. For LMICs, setting up large-scale genetic testing may not happen by 2040, given the lack of infrastructure and available funds.83 So, while WGS has a lot of potential, countries will need to assess if adopting for their entire population is a long-term investment worth making.
Case study
SE: Use of WGS to determine cancer risk and diagnosis
Case study
US: WGS of newborns
Chapter 4: Early cancer detection and precision diagnosis
Progress has been made in early cancer detection and diagnosis,16 however too many individuals still receive diagnoses at advanced stages, when treatment options are more limited and significantly more costly.84 In many cases, early-stage cancer presents without obvious symptoms, making timely diagnosis challenging.85 To address this global challenge, initiatives such as the Global Breast Cancer Initiative and the Cervical Cancer Elimination Initiative are driving efforts to promote earlier detection and improve outcomes.86,87
By 2040, we envision a world where all individuals at risk of developing cancer are proactively identified long before symptoms appear. Advances in genomic profiling, artificial intelligence, and digital pathology will help create personalized, efficient, and equitable diagnostic pathways, helping to ensure that high-risk individuals receive continuous monitoring, effective prevention strategies, and swift access to treatment.
However, as these innovations continue to evolve, it is essential to consider the challenges and risks associated with scaling up early detection programs, to ensure accuracy and accessibility for all populations. These include:
- Overdiagnosis, which may result in non-threatening conditions being detected and treated unnecessarily, leading to emotional, physical, and financial stress for patients.88 As some cancers may be slowly progressive or not progressive at all,89 overdiagnosis can lead to distorted survival rates and create the illusion of progress.
- Access disparities, such as when diagnostics are often not covered by insurance or require significant co-pays. In South Korea, NGS gene panel test requires 50% copay for advanced lung adenocarcinoma90 and in the US lung cancer screening requires prior authorization from Medicare.91
- Quality control will become increasingly challenging as patient volumes increase.92
- High costs of developing and implementing innovations may burden health systems when scaled to larger population coverage,93 especially in LMICs, where there are larger funding gaps.94
- Outmoded health technology assessment which relies too much on overall survival (OS) as a measure for Health Technology Assessments (HTA), becomes a challenge for cancers which have improved prognosis and are diagnosed early, delaying reimbursement.95 This is discussed further in Chapter 7.
Fact sheet
Cancer care pathway: Diagnosis
As we look to understand how we can make the 2040 vision a reality, we identified several current and emerging technologies which have the potential to both accelerate and improve the accuracy and precision of cancer detection through genomic profiling.96 In this chapter, we explore the transformative potential of precision diagnostics and the key considerations for ensuring these advancements benefit patients globally.
New forms of early detection technology
AI-assisted digital radiology: AI is increasingly being integrated into digital radiology workflows to help doctors analyze images more quickly and accurately, increasing the volume of medical images that can be analyzed by one person.97,98 This technology is also useful in LMICs, due to the potential lack of specialist workforce,99 enabling faster, more accurate diagnosis. However, incomplete and poor-quality training data for AI models can lead to bias and inaccuracy in interpretation,100 it is therefore imperative that the radiology workforce is upskilled on the use of these technologies, and that high quality data sets representative of the local population are used to train AI assistants.101
Case study
AU: Adoption of AI in radiology
Total-body Positron Emission Tomography (PET) scans: This technology increases the geometric coverage of traditional PET scans which can increase sensitivity by a factor of approximately 40 for whole body imaging, or a factor of approximately 4 for single organ imaging, conferring greater ability to determine whether cancers have spread.102
Volatile organic compounds (VOCs): VOCs are chemicals that can easily evaporate into the air, including through a person’s breath or other bodily fluids.103 Researchers are exploring how the identification of these compounds in a sample given by a patient can serve as biomarkers to identify cancer earlier and non-invasively. This research is still in the early stages, and more studies are needed to confirm how reliable these methods are.104
Liquid biopsy for early detection and Multi-Cancer Early Detection tests (MCEDs): While tissue biopsy is still considered the gold standard for diagnosis due to its consistency and accuracy,132 liquid biopsy offers advantages as a rapid, non-invasive way of diagnosing cancer.105 Liquid biopsy detects different molecular markers in one’s blood or body secretions. These markers can reveal tumor-specific changes at an early stage, when tissue biopsy is not practical.106 MCED tests are a type of liquid biopsy which look for many cancers using a single sample, however their accuracy and performance is still being determined.107,108 The Liquid Biopsy Consortium is funding several studies around the efficacy of MCEDs for early cancer detection, although data so far suggests that its use as a screening method for colorectal cancer is not yet cost effective.109
Case study
EN: Galleri Multi-Cancer Early Detection (MCED) trial
Improving the models of early detection we have today
Expanding and strengthening existing screening programs: While many countries already offer screening programs, including for breast, cervical, colorectal110 and more recently lung cancer111,112,113 participation is often low and varies across regions, income groups, and demographics.114 For example, breast cancer screening rates of women aged 50 to 69 in Europe in 2022 vary from 83% in Denmark, to 48% in France and 28.5% in Slovakia.115 To improve participation programs need to be culturally appropriate, include community outreach116 and become more risk-stratified. Technology can help this, through telehealth, mobile screening units, and home-based self-sampling, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.117,118,119,120 Text messages and telephone calls should also consider local cultural contexts,121 as has been trialed in Ghana for breast cancer screening.122 Furthermore, digital twins (virtual copies of patients)123 could be used to risk-stratify screening approaches for high-risk populations, developing more personalized approaches.124
Case study
CA & SE: At-home colorectal screening tests
Fact sheet
Cancer care pathway: Screening and early detection
Hub-and-spoke diagnostic models: Specialized diagnostic and treatment centers (the hubs) are connected to smaller, local healthcare facilities (the spokes) which provide initial care and screening, while digitized images or diagnostic samples are sent to the remote specialist pathology hubs for analysis.125 Integration of telemedicine and mobile diagnostic units can increase capacity and broaden access to specialized diagnostic care, particularly for underserved populations in regions with limited healthcare infrastructure – for whom early detection services are currently difficult to access.125,126
Case study
NG, BR & IN: Diagnostics hub-and-spoke model
Community diagnostic centers (CDCs): CDCs provide diagnostics closer to home, including imaging and laboratory analyses, without needing to visit larger hospitals.127 This reduces travel barriers and significantly increases participation, particularly among underserved populations.127 CDCs can also streamline the diagnostic process, allowing for quicker results and facilitating timely referrals to specialists when needed.127
Digital care pathways: These solutions often involve creating a tool to guide healthcare professionals through each step of the diagnostic process, from initial patient evaluation to final diagnosis and treatment of a suspected cancer.128 They can help doctors offer guideline-concordant care, reduce delays, and improve communication between different members of a patient’s MDT, allowing them to offer more personalized care.128
Point-of-care diagnostic (POC) devices: Innovative portable devices for POC testing are revolutionizing cancer diagnosis and management by offering immediate, accessible, and accurate testing solutions.129 Unlike traditional diagnostic methods, which often require visits to specialized labs or hospitals and may involve long waiting times for results, POC devices enable testing to occur directly in community settings, primary care offices, or even in patients’ homes.130 These portable devices can quickly detect cancer biomarkers through small samples such as blood, saliva, or urine, delivering results within minutes or hours rather than days.131
Molecular profiling and phenotyping as a standard part of diagnosis
Liquid biopsies: Beyond early detection, liquid biopsies can provide substantial information around diagnosis, including the potential aggressiveness of a tumor, as well as the proliferation, migration and drug resistance of cancer cells.132 However, work still needs to be done to refine their sensitivity and specificity.133 Today, this technology isn’t readily available through routine care for all patients or even in different countries, due to funding and implementation challenges.134 In the case of the UK, to support wider scale testing there is a need to invest in building the appropriate health system and laboratory infrastructure.133 It is also key to demonstrate the potential cost effectiveness of this tool, compared to more traditional diagnostic methods. For example, in the UK, at a test cost of £100 there is approximately a 75% probability of a liquid biopsy test for brain cancer being cost-effective in primary care.135 Cost savings in treatment selection have also been observed in lung cancer.136
Proteomics and omics: Protein biomarkers are used in the early detection of several cancers and for ongoing monitoring or a response to a therapeutic intervention.137 Advances in proteomics technology means thousands of previously unexplored proteins can be assessed for their association to different cancers.138 This type of research can identify genetic variation within cancer cells of the same type of cancer, that traditional diagnostic methods might miss.139
Digital pathology: Through digitization, high-resolution images of tumor samples can be easily shared across regions, allowing pathologists from around the world to collaborate in real-time to provide a detailed diagnosis, even in remote and low-income areas.60 While this technology holds great promise, its widespread adoption requires significant investment in high-resolution scanners and data storage capacity. However, studies estimate cost savings of up to $12.4 million over 5 years, due to improvements in improvements in pathology productivity and histology lab consolidation.140
Case study
UK: Use of digital pathology in cancer screening programs
Computational pathology: Powered by AI and machine learning, computational pathology can further enhance the accuracy of digital pathology by analyzing digital images consistently and in a level of detail not visible to the human eye, helping to detect patterns or anomalies that humans may miss.38,47,141 For example, a study shows that it can reduce the time taken to review a sample by as much as 30%, while improving accuracy.142 To enable its widespread use, there is a need to increase access to new AI tools, high-speed internet and robust cybersecurity; to restructure workflows to add an AI assistant, and to provide training on working with AI to help increase the productivity of laboratory professionals.143
Quantum technologies: Quantum technologies in healthcare, including oncology care, is an emerging field with applications in precision diagnosis, including the analysis of genomic and omics data to reveal trends in cancer types.144 Quantum Boltzmann machines can identify nonlinear relationships between different types of omics data, enhancing our ability to analyze large, multidimensional datasets in precision oncology.144 Additionally, quantum technology can enhance medical imaging and provide comparable accuracy to current methods – researchers have used a quantum framework to analyze mammograms and automate the segmentation of images to identify abnormalities.145 By minimizing the need for annotated datasets (used by existing techniques), this method is time saving and could accelerate time to diagnosis.145
Monitoring (post-treatment surveillance)
MCED tests: MCEDs also hold the potential to detect recurrences in cancer survivors.146 Although the MCED concept is still under investigation, there is potential for LMICs to ‘leapfrog’ more expensive alternatives with the eventual adoption of these technologies.147
AI-driven predictive analytics: AI and machine learning can integrate diverse data sets to identify cancer recurrence using patterns that may otherwise be missed.148,149 For example, AI can pair continuous monitoring of vital signs by wearable devices with genomic data and imaging to create personalized predictions.150 As discussed earlier in Chapter 2, important ethical and regulatory issues need to be resolved before AI’s predictive capability can be safely and reliably maximized.
Case study
Global: Using AI to support chronic condition management
Chapter 5: Personalized treatment
Over the past 30 years, cancer treatment has undergone a dramatic transformation with innovations in immunotherapy, targeted treatments, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and surgical techniques. These advancements have made treatments more effective and less physically taxing on patients.151,152,153,154 In 2040, cancer treatment has the potential to go further – becoming fully personalized and equitable, offering patients optimal outcomes with minimal side effects by avoiding therapies that may not be effective for certain cancer types.155
However, despite continuous innovation, progress in cancer outcomes has slowed due to persistent barriers in accessing novel technologies,156,157 creating inequalities both within and between countries, regions, and cancer types.158,159 In Europe, between 2019 and 2022, the median time to patient access to medicines varied from 1.5 months to over 2 years post market authorization.160 In LMICs, high costs, limited healthcare infrastructure, and shortages of specialized healthcare professionals further restrict access to the latest therapies, exacerbating disparities in cancer care.161
Emerging technologies and new models of care hold the potential to close these gaps and make personalized, augmented cancer treatment a reality. These are described in further detail within this chapter.
Fact sheet
Cancer care pathway: Treatment
Continuous treatment innovation
Targeted therapy: Today’s targeted therapies address many of the most common cancer mutations, which are used as biomarkers for targeted therapies. In Japan, the SCRUM-Japan GOZILA Project found patients who received targeted therapy based on the results of a liquid biopsy lived approximately twice as long as their peers.162 Because a cancer cell mutates further as it tries to adapt and survive a treatment, ongoing innovation is needed in targeted therapy to address the most common “resistance mutations”.163 To improve the outcomes from targeted therapy, ongoing genomic testing can be utilized to guide and adjust treatment and counteract the evolving nature of the cancer.164
- DNA damage response: Every cell in our body needs to continuously repair the wear and tear of its DNA from everyday use.165 When oncogenes are mutated in the DNA of a tumor cell, that DNA is unable to repair itself.165 This is called a “repair deficiency” and can be used as a tool for targeted therapy.166 These treatments limit a cell’s ability to repair its DNA, thereby killing cancer cells with repair deficiencies.167
Radiotherapy: Over the past decade we have seen evolution in radiotherapy technology, with enhanced ability to precisely target tumors while minimizing damage to surrounding health tissues.168 New treatment strategies include hypofractionation which involves fewer but more intensive radiation sessions, and exploration of novel combinations with other traditional cancer therapies, such as immunotherapy.169,170
- MR-LINACs: This method of radiotherapy integrates MRI imaging into lineal accelerators (LINACs) to allow MRI-guided radiation therapy, which ensures safer delivery and the ability to monitor tissues while the radiotherapy is being delivered.171 This might lead to a reduction in treatment time and less side effects for patients.172 In 2018, the Royal Marsden hospital in London treated the first UK patient with MR-LINAC therapy, helping to roll it out on a more global scale.173
- Radioimmunotherapy: Recently, publications on radioimmunotherapy have increased, as the benefit of combining these two cancer treatments shows promise.174 Studies indicate the combined use of radiotherapy and immunotherapy can be more effective than either treatment alone.175 Its use has been investigated non-small cell lung cancer, esophageal and gastroesophageal junction tumors.176
Multimodal conjugates:
- Antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs): These treatments conjugate (or link) a special protein called an antibody that binds easily to some cells (biomarkers) with a cancer-fighting chemotherapy drug.177 The antibody is designed to find and attach to cancer cells expressing a matching biomarker on their surface. Once the antibody attaches to the cancer cell, it delivers the drug directly inside, where it can effectively kill it. This limits the damage to healthy cells and, with some ADCs, helps to kill “bystander” tumor cells that threaten the patient but do not express a treatable biomarker.177
- Radioconjugates: These therapies conjugate radioactive materials and special targeting molecules to attack cancer cells.178 The radioactive part releases radiation that can kill cancer cells, while the targeting molecules help guide the treatment directly to the tumor, sparing nearby healthy tissue.178
Immunotherapies:
- Bispecific immunotherapies: These two-arm treatments work by targeting two different proteins at the same time, helping the immune system recognize and attack cancer cells more effectively.179 One arm of the bispecific antibody binds to a biomarker on the cancer cell while the other arm attaches to immune cells, helping the immune cell reach its target.179
- CAR-T cell therapies: A patient’s immune cells, called T-cells, are modified in a lab to make them better at finding and attacking cancer cells.180 These therapies offer shorter treatment times and quicker recovery, although they require complex cell processing that limits access to them.181,182 These therapies can be autologous (using the patient’s own immune cells) or allogenic (using cells from a donor).183 Allogenic therapies provide an ‘off the shelf’ treatment as genetically engineered donor cells are stored in a cell bank waiting to be used.
- Cancer vaccines: These are designed to help the body’s immune system recognize and attack cancer cells.184 While existing preventive vaccines address infections like hepatitis B or HPV that may cause cancer, new types of cancer vaccines will directly treat cancers.184 Much like today’s immunotherapies, they will train the immune system to target and fight cancer cells.184
Epigenetic therapeutics: While genetic alterations are permanent, epigenetic alterations can be reversed.185 Epigenetic changes tend to result from exposure to known risk factors like smoking and chronic inflammation stemming from causes such as hepatitis B.186 Genetics and epigenetics work together to turn healthy cells into cancer cells.187 New therapies are in development to re-program cancer cells back to healthy cells, whilst also holding the potential to improve the efficacy of existing anti-cancer treatments.185,188
Surgical techniques: The landscape of cancer surgery has been revolutionized in recent years, predominantly due to advancements in minimally invasive and precision surgical technology.189 Robotic technologies have aided surgical techniques, providing enhanced control and visual precision, resulting in less trauma to tissues, shorter stays in hospital, lower infection risks and fewer surgical complications.190 For example, when undergoing prostatectomy for prostate cancer, patients can leave the hospital the day following surgery.191
Drug repurposing: Developing new cancer therapies and technologies is a time consuming and expensive endeavor. Drug repurposing uses existing drugs for new indications and provides an exciting opportunity to circumvent these challenges and facilitate precision cancer treatment.192 Repurposing drugs as anticancer agents has been explored in prostate cancer for example.193
Case study
EU: Precision Cancer Medicine Repurposing System Using Pragmatic Clinical Trials, PRIME-ROSE
Digital twins: Digital twins are virtual replicas of patients, based on the integration of several sets of data from medical imaging, genomics and other clinical data points.194 Digital twins can act as predictive tools to understand how patients may respond to different types of treatment to make the most effective and safe treatment decisions.194 However, there are important considerations around the use of healthcare data for the development of digital twins, including obtaining informed consent, ensuring data ownership and navigating legal limitations.195 These aspects of healthcare data are further discussed in Chapter 2.
Case study
US: Innovative detection and treatment tools for cancer care in the US
Equity in access to innovation
To derive the benefits of these innovations, health systems must prepare for their rapid adoption, through the modernization of clinical trial protocols, regulatory frameworks, health technology assessment, and payment models.
Access to clinical trials: Limited access to clinical trials disproportionately affects minority populations, who are more likely to receive care at under-resourced hospital systems where few clinical trials are available.196 Since diversity in clinical trial participants is critical to precision medicine, broadening participation benefits not only patient participants but also the companies running the trials.197 To improve equity of access, trials must also take place in rural and remote areas, with new approaches to disseminate recruitment information, investment in infrastructure, and less stringent eligibility criteria that allow a wider range of people to participate, especially those with complex comorbidities.198 This disparity in access is not just observed within countries, but between HICs and LMICs, with only 43% of clinical trials for diseases that disproportionately impact people living in LMICs being carried out in LMICs.199
Fact sheet
Cancer care pathway: Clinical trials
Case study
APAC: Decentralized access to clinical trials
Case study
CN, JP, EU & US: Expanding access to clinical trials
Case study
US: Health equity report card
Regulatory sandboxes for AI: Ensuring that AI systems are reliable and accurate across diverse patient populations is complex, especially given the potential for biased or incomplete datasets.200 The “black box” nature of many AI models, where decision-making processes are not easily understood, adds further complexity.201 Since regulators tend to require a high level of transparency for approval, existing regulatory frameworks are not suited to the fast-evolving nature of AI technologies, leading to delays in their approval.202 Privacy and data security concerns, especially when handling sensitive patient information, also present significant hurdles.203 New regulatory sandboxes, where government supervise the deployment of new technology in the real world, in small-scale pilots, could help to speed up the adoption of new AI technologies. 204
Case study
UK: Regulatory sandbox on AI
Hub-and-spoke clinical trial model: A hub will collect information from all its spokes, enabling trials to cast the participant recruitment net much wider and potentially increasing the speed of research and development, especially for rarer cancers.205
Digital and telemedicine in clinical trials: Digital platforms and telemedicine can help mitigate geographical inequities by allowing patients to participate in trials without needing to travel to major research centers.206 Mobile health apps, wearable devices, and remote monitoring, also present opportunities to collect more accurate and complete personal health information from clinical trial participants remotely.207 Virtual recruitment tools, such as online registries, electronic health records and AI-driven matching algorithms, can help identify eligible patients more efficiently.208,209,210 AI can also enhance drug selection and adapt investigational drugs to the histology of a specific cancer, thus increasing efficacy.210 While this is an area of fast-paced innovation, there are important ethical concerns around data availability, standards, and a lack of appropriate regulatory frameworks that inhibit the speed at which AI can be used in drug development.210